A QAD DynaSys Leadership White Paper for Supply Chain Scenario Planning
There are events we take for granted when we go about our personal life. We expect that the car will start each morning. We expect that our credit card will work at the store. We expect that we will not become ill. Experience shows us, however, that some everyday situations may bring about unforeseen outcomes. We acknowledge this by employing mitigation strategies like insurance, spare keys, and calling on friends. But what happens when the magnitude, frequency, and volume of unforeseen outcomes overwhelms even the most well-calculated mitigation efforts? We are forced to think quickly on our feet; in other words, we are forced to be agile.
Likewise, a manufacturing supply chain design is based on a series of assumptions that underpin an underlying model to synchronize supply and demand within the confines of a myriad of constraints and costs. The majority of these assumptions, in normal times, are, like expecting the car to start, beyond reproach. These include material available and capacity.
What happens when even the most confident assumptions become a potential area of risk? Is a new supply chain model required? Is a more flexible model required? How do planners navigate unprecedented disruption? This is where dynamic scenario planning comes into play